Monthly Archives: June 2010

New Senate forecast: a 55-45 baseline

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FiveThirtyEight’s updated Senate forecast is out, taking into account the results of various primaries — most significantly Nevada, where the victory of Tea Party favorite Sharron Angle has turned a likely GOP pickup into a tossup (and where “Harry Reid’s favorability/approval numbers have also improved some, and are now merely godawful rather than mind-bogglingly wretched”), and Arkansas, where choosing incumbent… Read more »