When did President Trump really get COVID-19?

My initial thread on this topic, from Monday evening:

I’ve tried to resist the more speculative theories… but the “information” and stonewalling from the WH has become so manifestly sketchy, I just can’t anymore.

So anyway, with that said… this is interesting https://t.co/mmJgotRhyf

— Mile High Brendan (@MileHighBrendan) October 6, 2020

I keep circling back to my tweets from last Monday. Two days after the crowded Rose Garden announcement for Amy Coney Barrett, the White House was suddenly using separate speaking spots for the President and other speakers. https://t.co/wbDa1TKrTb

— Jamie Dupree (@jamiedupree) October 5, 2020

Look, I have no idea. But *IF*, hypothetically, Trump actually started feeling bad right around the time of the ACB event, but refused to get tested till after Hicks got it, that’d explain a lot of different things.

— Mile High Brendan (@MileHighBrendan) October 6, 2020

• Won’t say when last negative test was
• Won’t allow contact tracing (fear Trump is Patient Zero)
• Timing of decline (~day 7, typical) & why doctors hope maybe he’s past the worst of it (if he’s ~day 10)
• Why docs OK’d van ride & WH return (if he’s past isolation period)

— Mile High Brendan (@MileHighBrendan) October 6, 2020

Also – it sorta seems like his whole debate prep team got it & are all sick, doesn’t it? High viral load & very infection at that stage of infection, maybe.

— Mile High Brendan (@MileHighBrendan) October 6, 2020

Replies:

I really think this is the Occam's razor explanation at this stage. I started thinking of it as a conspiracy theory earlier but it fits the evidence best: Trump just hasn't been testing that often.

— Peel (@RHPeel) October 6, 2020

I think they knew. They’ve long ago forfeited any presumption of good faith

— Dr. Erin Arlinghaus (@erinarlinghaus) October 6, 2020

They knew. They hid it.

— 🎃 🕸 Chrisanthrope 🕸 🎃 (@BayouOwl) October 6, 2020

this is my theory…Trump AND HIS TEAM suspected he'd test positive so delayed taking a test. Then symptoms started running away from them, Hicks' test leaked > had to drop 10 and punt to Walter Reed.

— kingcambie (@kingcambie) October 6, 2020

Obviously they weren’t testing him. He showed up late to the debate on Tuesday so they wouldn’t have time to get him tested. Also as @talktoskirt and I independently noted he completely ran out of gas w/ about 20-25 minutes left in the debate.

— Tom S. (@ObiWanKobe) October 6, 2020

Looking at the timeline a little more moved me from "he probably just didn't do testing" to more agnostic about whether he might have actually known (the Monday thing plus the debate-day timeline) https://t.co/r5tTcD0nbB

— Patrick De Klotz (@patdeklotz) October 6, 2020

Some key points from that article:

Next, on Wednesday morning, I saw this:

Thread: https://t.co/EUyGza0NcT

— END THE CLOWN SHOW. VOTE! (@keder) October 7, 2020

What he said on Thursday “It’s very, very hard when you are with people from the military or law enforcement, and they come over to you, and they want to hug you, and they want to kiss you, because we really have done a good job for them. And you get close and things happen"

— Fred Wellman (@FPWellman) October 6, 2020

Today's NYT has this nugget: "General Milley and a number of senior (DOD) officials have also been getting tested frequently since last Sunday, when many of the Pentagon’s senior leadership attended a White House reception for “Gold Star” families of fallen troops." So, they knew

— Fred Wellman (@FPWellman) October 6, 2020

😡🤬😡🤬😡🤬 https://t.co/uAlkLFce6l

— Mile High Brendan (@MileHighBrendan) October 7, 2020

This event has been hidden and barely mentioned in the media or by the White House in the timelines of Trump's illness. We now know he attended the event the day after contracting COVID at the ACB event. He has literally infected our military survivor families…himself.

— Fred Wellman (@FPWellman) October 6, 2020

Here is the tweet from @FLOTUS showing all of the smiling, unmasked attendees mingling with a COVID positive POTUS. Don't tell me they love the troops and their families when they've exposed them to a deadly disease and haven't bothered to even tell them. #LincolnVeteran pic.twitter.com/EvQFmxvLmP

— Fred Wellman (@FPWellman) October 6, 2020

But wait there's more. I am being old that Admiral Ray the Vice Commandant of the Coast Guard that tested positive today…was at the Gold Star event last Sunday. #TrumpSuperSpreader

— Fred Wellman (@FPWellman) October 6, 2020

I'm hearing from families now. Not one has been contacted by the White House about possible exposure or contact tracing. They were exposed to multiple people that have tested positive and the Trump Administration can't be bothered to even email them.

— Fred Wellman (@FPWellman) October 6, 2020

Then this, from my Midwest-sensible, non-conspiratorially-minded conservative friend Erin:

So my current theory is that all that nonsense about Biden being on drugs to help him get through the debate was ALSO projection, since DJT was probably planning to be hopped up on cough suppressant and ibuprofen.

— Dr. Erin Arlinghaus (@erinarlinghaus) October 7, 2020

The timing checks out. The "performance-enhancing drugs" accusation was reported on Monday 9/28.

— Dr. Erin Arlinghaus (@erinarlinghaus) October 7, 2020

This is very probably wrong, but just spitballing: what if he actually got a steroid treatment before the debate? Would explain his over-the-top-even-for-him interrupty aggressiveness.

Seems unlikely even with the unofficial speculative timeline, but ¯_(ツ)_/¯

— Mile High Brendan (@MileHighBrendan) October 7, 2020

And, the final thread that persuaded me:

White House officials believe POTUS was infected at the event for Judge Barrett on Saturday Sept 26.

They will not say when POTUS last tested negative, raising questions as to whether he was tested at all between infection and the debate Tuesday Sept 29.

This is important…

— Jake Tapper (@jaketapper) October 7, 2020

2/ NYT reporter @shearm believes he got infected Sept 26 either at the WH (required to go to get a COVID test bc he was traveling with the POTUS) or on Air Force One with POTUS the night of Sat. Sept 26.

Did POTUS test negative that day? WH won’t say.https://t.co/QydiWCfDM5

— Jake Tapper (@jaketapper) October 7, 2020

4/ A Coast Guard admiral who attended that Gold Star Family event tested positive the next day.

The White House did not initiate contact with the Gold Star families to let them know of the infection, the Washington Post reports.

— Jake Tapper (@jaketapper) October 7, 2020

6/ And again: when did the president last test negative?

That’s information the Biden campaign, the CPD, Ohioans and others have a right to know.

The president flew to Minnesota Sept 30 — did he test negative that day? WH won’t say. pic.twitter.com/GiBQeIobpG

— Jake Tapper (@jaketapper) October 7, 2020

8/ When asked when POTUS last tested negative, Commander Conley said “I don’t want to move backwards.”

That is not an acceptable answer. The White House needs to say, on the record, when POTUS last tested negative.

— Jake Tapper (@jaketapper) October 7, 2020

With that, I was off to the races.

MY GRAND UNIFIED THEORY OF THE TRUMP COVID COVER-UP:

If Trump was infected 9/26, he’d be very unlikely to have been contagious on 9/27, to my understanding.

Is there anyone else who was both at the 9/26 event (where they could’ve infected Trump & others) and at the 9/27 event (where they could’ve infected Admiral Ray)? https://t.co/D5zYXeIuMp

— Mile High Brendan (@MileHighBrendan) October 7, 2020

OTOH, if Trump got it on, say, Thu 9/24, I think it’s at least plausible he would’ve been contagious on 9/26 & 9/27, with initial symptoms by Mon 9/28 (hence the podium distance noted by @jamiedupree, and “drugs” projection suggested by @erinarlinghaus). https://t.co/nHDGblJB9w

— Mile High Brendan (@MileHighBrendan) October 7, 2020

This would explain, like, 90% of the mysteries re: the timeline & the WH’s actions, wouldn’t it?

He/they were hoping he’d just get better so they could never reveal it b/c oh shit ACB, which was still possible as of the debate, so they doubled down & fully committed to the lie.

— Mile High Brendan (@MileHighBrendan) October 7, 2020

They didn’t test him all week, to maintain plausible deniability. He deliberately showed up late to the debate to avoid being tested. Each step further committed them to the lie, like bumbling teenagers who end up committing major crimes while covering up some initial minor lie.

— Mile High Brendan (@MileHighBrendan) October 7, 2020

When Hope Hicks got it, they had to think fast, but they figured they couldn’t cancel the NJ event, because that would raise questions and risk exposing the lie. And hey, they told themselves, we don’t *know* Trump has it. He hasn’t tested positive. (Hasn’t tested, period.)

— Mile High Brendan (@MileHighBrendan) October 7, 2020

So, in a state of near-panic, they crossed their fingers that somehow it would all be OK, and — like you do in the final stages of protecting a lie — they did the worst thing they’d done yet: went to the NJ event & acted like all was normal, while now-almost-certainly infectious.

— Mile High Brendan (@MileHighBrendan) October 7, 2020

When @JenniferJJacobs reported Hicks’s test—the most world-historically important D.C. journalism scoop since Woodward & Bernstein—the lie began collapsing. At that point they probably expanded the circle of people in the know & someone finally said: you guys, we gotta test Trump

— Mile High Brendan (@MileHighBrendan) October 7, 2020

Even when the rapid test came back positive, they were still hoping against hope PCR’d be negative. But they also started discussing a new, fallback lie: that he probably got it at the military event, post-ACB (and had no clue till after debate). Hence what Trump said to Hannity.

— Mile High Brendan (@MileHighBrendan) October 7, 2020

But of course then everything spiraled out of control, as tends to happen when a multi-layered lie unravels. Among other things, Trump suddenly got *really* sick Friday day 5 or 6 since symptoms).

No contact-tracing + last-negative-test secrecy are the last vestiges of the lie.

— Mile High Brendan (@MileHighBrendan) October 7, 2020

We’ll never know—and yes, I know, GOP has no scruples—but if this had happened a year or 2 before the election, I actually think there’s at least a 50/50 chance it brings Trump down. It’s a simple lie that’d all unravel in an impeachment inquiry. 70% of public would back removal.

— Mile High Brendan (@MileHighBrendan) October 7, 2020

It won’t lead to his removal if somehow he’s re-elected b/c people are too dug in & they’d see the election as validating everything before it (also we won’t have a functioning republic in that case anyway). But if I’m right & if this had happened in 2018? He’d be toast, I think.

— Mile High Brendan (@MileHighBrendan) October 7, 2020

Replies:

I agree with you that this timeline, if it is not *the* simplest explanation with what we have seen, is at least *an entirely plausible* one.

I rate it as very high because I do think "Joe's taking drugs to help him in the debate" is a tell.

— Dr. Erin Arlinghaus (@erinarlinghaus) October 7, 2020

The fact that no one will say when DJT last tested negative is pretty damning.

— Dr. Erin Arlinghaus (@erinarlinghaus) October 7, 2020

Will we even know? Is there any formal contact tracing? Are MAGA people gonna come forward and tell the fake
news media “I got the hoax virus from Dear Leader”?

— Mile High Brendan (@MileHighBrendan) October 7, 2020

P.S.

BTW, if Trump had symptoms ~9/28 or earlier, a 10/15 in-person debate would be more plausibly defensible under CDC guidelines than if first symptoms 10/1. So, as 10/15 nears, this lie could unravel via a slip-up by Trump or his doctors about that.

More: https://t.co/RptpUWJaG1 https://t.co/nB5DfZEIfy

— Mile High Brendan (@MileHighBrendan) October 7, 2020