UPDATE: Here’s a closer view this morning of Igor and Julia — simultaneous Category 4 hurricanes in the Atlantic, only the second time that’s happened in recorded history: From Dr. Jeff Masters: The Atlantic hurricane season of 2010 kicked into high gear this morning, with the landfall of Tropical Storm Karl in Mexico, and the simultaneous presence of two Category… Read more »
As I tweeted yesterday, I’ve barely been paying any attention to Hurricane Igor, but he’s a Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds, and could potentially become the season’s first Category 5 before weakening begins due to increased shear. He could threaten Bermuda in 5-7 days, but does not appear likely to affect the U.S. beyond high surf. Igor is… Read more »
No longer a “MONSTER,” and leaving behind a trail of inconvenience rather than destruction, Hurricane Earl is now a weakening Category 1 storm traversing ever-colder waters en route to a second U.S. “sideswipe” tonight, landfall as a tropical storm in Canada, and then, extratropical oblivion. Here’s a look at both Earl and the trough of low pressure (i.e., cold front)… Read more »
Before I post the latest track forecast, it’s important to emphasize that Hurricane Earl is not a point on the map, but a broad storm system with a geographically large wind field. The exact course of the eye is important, especially for storm surge purposes, because the strongest winds and most damaging surge — especially when it reaches New England,… Read more »
It looks like Jim Cantore may have picked the wrong Cape. The official NHC forecast now calls for Hurricane Earl to pass closer to Cape Cod and the Islands than to Cape Hatteras and the Outer Banks, thanks to a gradual leftward shift over the last several advisories, and most recently, an overnight lurch in the computer models: AFTER 48… Read more »
Hurricane Earl is back up to Category 4 intensity, with 135 mph winds. Not much change to the forecast reasoning — the worst weather is likely to remain offshore — but that right turn needs to begin soon (like, tonight). Watches and warnings now extend from Cape Fear, North Carolina all the way to almost the Massachusetts-New Hampshire border. Meanwhile,… Read more »
Did I speak too soon? The computer model forecast tracks for Hurricane Earl, which had been trending east (and away from a New England threat), trended ever-so-slightly back west overnight. That “crucial 40° N 70° W marker” I mentioned? It’s now in the crosshairs of the official NHC track and the model consensus. And get a load of the GFNI:… Read more »
[Cross-posted from Sullivan’s Travellers.] The Weather Channel’s harbinger of hurricane-related doom, Jim Cantore, has changed his travel plans, and will be greeting Hurricane Earl from Cape Hatteras instead of Cape Cod. The latest computer model map illustrates why: The models now universally call for Earl to take a pronounced right turn between 30° N and 40° N; there is no… Read more »
[Cross-posted from Sullivan’s Travellers.] First, please accept my apologies, anyone who’s been looking here for hurricane updates. I’ve been derelict in my storm-watching duties — indeed, I don’t know if there’s ever been a time in the last 20 years when I’ve paid this little attention to a major hurricane in the Atlantic, never mind one that’s a possible threat… Read more »
Slowed down to 300x actual speed: More here and here.