3 thoughts on “FriendFeed: Stewart Mandel projects …”
maineiac13
Right…and USC may be one of those 7-5 teams!
Brendan Loy
Haha! They may… but the 7-5 Trojans probably wouldn’t affect Notre Dame’s bowl status, because it’s only 7-5 at-large teams (i.e., “at-large” for bowl purposes, meaning they don’t have a contract via their conference to go to a specific bowl) that hinder Notre Dame’s effort to become an at-large 6-6 bowl team. And USC is unlikely to be an at-large team in any scenario.
If USC loses to UCLA and Arizona, they would finish tied with the Bruins (and possibly Washington) for sixth place, at 4-5 in conference play. UW is irrelevant for bowl purposes, since they’d be bowl-ineligible at 5-7 overall in this scenario. Meanwhile, both USC and UCLA would be 7-5 overall, and thus bowl eligible, but the Poinsettia Bowl, which is the Pac-10’s sixth and final “tied in” bowl, would presumably select USC rather than UCLA, as the Trojans are a bigger draw for TV ratings and whatnot. (The bowls are not obligated to pick the winner of the head-to-head tiebreaker; they can pick whomever they want among tied teams.) Thus, it’s 7-5 UCLA, not 7-5 USC, that Notre Dame needs to worry about. Which means that, actually, Irish fans should root for USC to beat UCLA, thus keeping the at-large Bruins at 6-6. (Either that, or root for UCLA to beat USC and for Arizona to lose its final two games, and hope the Poinsettia Bowl chooses UCLA rather than Arizona, thus making the Wildcats a 6-6 at-large team.)
David K.
Stewart Mandel points out its possible (and even seems kinda likely at this point) that Notre Dame could miss out on a bowl based on too many 7-5 teams:
Right…and USC may be one of those 7-5 teams!
Haha! They may… but the 7-5 Trojans probably wouldn’t affect Notre Dame’s bowl status, because it’s only 7-5 at-large teams (i.e., “at-large” for bowl purposes, meaning they don’t have a contract via their conference to go to a specific bowl) that hinder Notre Dame’s effort to become an at-large 6-6 bowl team. And USC is unlikely to be an at-large team in any scenario.
If USC loses to UCLA and Arizona, they would finish tied with the Bruins (and possibly Washington) for sixth place, at 4-5 in conference play. UW is irrelevant for bowl purposes, since they’d be bowl-ineligible at 5-7 overall in this scenario. Meanwhile, both USC and UCLA would be 7-5 overall, and thus bowl eligible, but the Poinsettia Bowl, which is the Pac-10’s sixth and final “tied in” bowl, would presumably select USC rather than UCLA, as the Trojans are a bigger draw for TV ratings and whatnot. (The bowls are not obligated to pick the winner of the head-to-head tiebreaker; they can pick whomever they want among tied teams.) Thus, it’s 7-5 UCLA, not 7-5 USC, that Notre Dame needs to worry about. Which means that, actually, Irish fans should root for USC to beat UCLA, thus keeping the at-large Bruins at 6-6. (Either that, or root for UCLA to beat USC and for Arizona to lose its final two games, and hope the Poinsettia Bowl chooses UCLA rather than Arizona, thus making the Wildcats a 6-6 at-large team.)
Stewart Mandel points out its possible (and even seems kinda likely at this point) that Notre Dame could miss out on a bowl based on too many 7-5 teams:
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2009/writers/stewart_mandel/11/23/bowl.projections/index.html
Interestingly it could also knock the ‘ruins out of a bowl, and/or place UCLA and ND in competition for a bowl slot.