Here is where things apparently are, from what I understand of what’s being reported:
• From the Pac-10’s perspective, everything hinges on Texas. The Pac-12 thing (add Colorado and Utah) seems unlikely to happen; not enough upside. It’s Pac-16 or status quo, because Pac-16 is the only way to get Texas, and Texas is what the Pac-10 really wants.
• From Texas’s perspective, everything hinges on Nebraska. Nobody cares whether Missouri leaves for the Big Ten; they can be replaced easily enough. (Hello, TCU? Or perhaps Utah?) But if Nebraska leaves, Texas believes that would kill the conference. However, the Longhorns don’t want to leave the Big 12, because: 1) their TV-related rights in the Big 12 are better than what the Pac-10 is offering; 2) they don’t want to be the Big Ten’s southern outpost; and 3) they don’t want to join the far less academically prestigious SEC. So, at the moment, keeping the Big 12 together is Texas’s preference. However, they’ll bolt rather than stay in a Nebraska-less Big 12. And, if they must bolt, the Pac-10’s offer is the best available option. So, if Nebraska leaves, Pac-16 happens, with only side details like Colorado vs. Baylor to work out.
• From Nebraska’s perspective, everything hinges on the Big Ten. Namely, whether they get an offer from the Big Ten. It’s all talk thus far; no offer has been made.
• From the Big Ten’s perspective, everything hinges on Notre Dame. If the Irish join, the Big Ten will simply add the Irish, split into two six-team divisions, and that’ll be it for expansion. If the Irish refuse, only then does the Big Ten possibly make an offer to Missouri and Nebraska (and some Big East teams).
• From Notre Dame’s perspective, everything hinges on… everything else. The powers-that-be in South Bend don’t want to give up their independence unless they feel that massive national realignment is “forcing their hand,” potentially “leaving them behind” if they don’t join a conference. But, ironically, the best way to prevent massive national realignment from happening is… to give up their independence! If the Irish join the Big Ten, the rest of the dominoes probably don’t fall. If they refuse to join, then Nebraska probably gets invited and probably accepts, in which case Texas bolts, the Pac-16 happens, the Big Ten expands to 16 as well, SEC probably follows suit, etc. etc. Basically, Kyle Whelliston’s “Phase I” happens. Also known as (in rough outlines, anyway) the Staples Solution, or the end of college sports as we know it.
It’s unclear in what order these decisions will be made. Nebraska has apparently been given a Friday “stay or go” ultimatum by the Big 12. That may force the Big Ten’s hand, which may, in turn, force Notre Dame’s. We shall see. Bottom line, this promises to be a very eventful week. (And that’s without getting into the whole USC / Reggie Bush / Infractions Committee thing.)
P.S. The New York Times adds a key detail I didn’t know:
If the Pac-10 swiped six teams from the Big 12 and Missouri or Nebraska went to the Big Ten, the Big 12 would become defunct. Under N.C.A.A. guidelines, a conference needs at least six universities that have played together for five years. The Big 12 would lose its Bowl Championship Series bid and automatic bid to the N.C.A.A. basketball tournament.
This adds an intriguing twist to my scenario whereby the Mountain West would gobble up the dregs of the Big 12 (Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State and either Baylor or Colorado), in a 12-team league (adding Boise, dropping two current MWC bottom-feeders) or a 14-team league (either not dropping the bottom-feeders, or dropping them and adding two more WAC teams like Fresno and Nevada) or a 16-team league (keep the bottom-feeders, add the WAC teams).
The addition of the Big 12 teams would help the MWC achieve BCS automatic qualifying status, since its current problem isn’t with the teams at the top, but those at the bottom — and adding four Big 12 teams, even though they aren’t very good ones, would help a lot. However, unless the post-expansion chaos changes the process somehow — which seems entirely possible, and let’s also note that the BCS isn’t actually bound by “N.C.A.A. guidelines” — the MWC can’t earn a BCS bid until, if I remember correctly, the 2012-13 season. So, at least in theory, the Big 12 castaways would have to endure two seasons off the island before they’d be invited back on. Which, I guess, is why this crazy-sounding idea might happen instead:
That could leave colleges like Kansas and Kansas State to be snapped up by the Big East, which could be its best bet to continue using the lure of a B.C.S. bid for football recruits.
The Big East?!? Sheesh.
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Who the he’ll wrote that tweetback? Wolf Blitzer!?!?
LOL!
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I’m glad everything is crystal clear now at last. 🙂
I am curious about one thing. Suppose Nebraska does not say anything by the “deadline.” What does that mean? Does the Big-12 kick them out then? Wonder if they can actually do that? I suspect there would be some kind of law suit filed at least trying to delay that so that Nebraska would still have time to see if they can make a deal with the Big-10.
This is the question I have as well. What kind of deadline is this? What are the consequences or missing it? To me, until the Big 12 says “Decide by this date, or we KICK YOU OUT”, these are like those health care “deadlines” given to Congress by the Obama administration, which were never met, and after they passed, everybody pretended like they didn’t exist anyway.
As I understand it, the consequence of Nebraska refusing to state its intentions is that the six teams desired by the Pac-10 assume the worst and leave, thus effectively destroying the Big 12 and leaving Nebraska with no choice but to go elsewhere (assuming an offer from “elsewhere” is forthcoming!). This is why the deadline potentially forces everyone’s hand: Nebraska needs something definitive from the Big Ten before the Big 12’s deadline so as to avoid the risk of being potentially stuck without ANY conference if Texas & co. bolt and then the Big Ten says, “Nevermind. Just kidding.”
This mega-conference realignment is great for football, since it will create a playoff without an outright playoff, but won’t this screw up all the rest of college athletics? I mean does the golf program at Nebraska have a budget to tour the west coast for conference play?… Now that I think about it, I doubt there is a golf program at Nebraska, but I think you know what I’m getting at.
My apologies if this was posted in an earlier comment tweet, but:
Baylor President Ken Starr has also put out a statement, saying “We’re slightly less screwed than Iowa State because we have legislators who care about college football.” Your move, Colorado?
http://www.wacotrib.com/opinion/columns/Ken-Starr-guest-columnist-Baylor-other-Big-12-Texas-schools-must-stick-together-in-any-conference-realignment.html
Sandy…I suspect that for most of the “minor” sports the teams will play only those teams within the division except perhaps for the conference championship. Probably only Basketball and Football where there will actually be at least some inter-division play before the confernce championship. (Oh and of course Nebraska doesn’t actually need to worry about playing golf on the west coast since it isn’t one of the teams that will be getting an offer from the Pac-10….but your point is still appropriate for the Texas and Oklahoma and maybe Colorado teams that will be invited.)
@Sandy, given that you’ll have an east and west division in a Pac-16 arrangment, travel to the west coast would be limited and any expenses would likely be dwarfed by the projected $20 million increase in revenue such a deal is expected to generate. For perspective, the UW which actually has a positive balance sheet for its athletics department ahs a current revenue of about $60 million. So for the UW its a 25% increase. And piddling WSU? $20 more in funds would almost DOUBLE their revenue of $30 million, menaing they might actually MAKE money for once in a blue moon. Trust me, the minor sports which almost all allready lose money anyway would benefit from this. In fact at most schools the only programs that bring in money (and thus fund the rest) are football and basketball (mens). Some schools have womens basketball and baseball that help too, but Football is the engine that powers the rest in many many schools.
It will really be a shame if ND screws this up!!
Srsly!
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