After the surprising 0-0 tie between England and Algeria, which was literally the best possible result for the Americans after this morning’s amazing comeback/referee screwjob against Slovenia, here’s where things stand, I think, in terms of the USA’s hopes of qualifying for the next round of the World Cup. Someone correct me if I’m wrong:
* If we beat Algeria, we’re in.
* If we lose to Algeria, we’re out.
* If we tie Algeria, and Slovenia beats England, we’re in.
* If we tie Algeria, and England beats Slovenia, we’re out.
* If we tie Algeria, and Slovenia and England also tie, we’re in UNLESS the English score 2+ more goals in their tie than we do in our tie. More specifically… if the Brits score 3+ more goals than us (e.g., theirs is a 3-3 tie, ours is a 0-0 tie), they’re in & we’re out. If the Brits score exactly two goals more than us, then our battle with England for the final spot comes down to a coin flip. (Ha!) If the Brits score the exact same number of goals that we do, or fewer goals than us, or only 1 more goal than us, we’re in & they’re out.
Both games — Slovenia vs. England and United States vs. Algeria — start at 8:00 AM Mountain Time on Wednesday.
UPDATE: Scenario analysis confirmed.
Considering how badly USA got screwed by the refs today, this was an incredibly lucky result for us.
If the US wins by two goals, it’s in regardless of what happens in the other match.
And after everything that’s happened today, I’d take a place in the second round no matter the opponent. With the possibility of France, Germany and England all going out in the group phase, the surprises likely won’t stop here.
This is PRECISELY why ties are stupid.
The negative part of coming in second in our group was the prospect of having to face Germany as the winner of Group D. But after watching Germany today, I’m not sure why we should worry about them more than Serbia or Ghana. As long as we get through to the next round, we have a good chance to make it to the quarterfinals.
“If the US wins by two goals, it’s in regardless of what happens in the other match.”
If the US wins by ANY numbers of goals, it’s in regardless of what happens in the other match. At that point, the US would have 5 points, and Algeria would have 1. Meanwhile, Slovenia currently has 4 points, and England 2. So, if the U.S & England win, they both have 5 points, Slovenia 4, Algeria 1. If the U.S. & Slovernia win, it’s Slovenia 7, USA 5, Brits 2, Algeria 1. If the U.S. wins and Slovernia & England tie, it’s Slovenia 5, USA 5, Brits 3, Algeria 1. In any of these scenarios, the US is in the Top 2 without resort to tiebreakers.
The number of points only matters if both matches Wednesday are ties.
In other news, for some reason I can’t spell “Slovenia” without an “r.”
That’s okay, Brendan, Slovernia sounds pretty real to me! My office-mate and I were recently discussing how the current government in Kerplakistan is falling apart.
And the English sports sheets have officially exploded.
Its like the New York sports sections, but on steroids!
I am curious about England, though. What the devil?!?! They just look off. A squad with all that talent shouldn’t draw against Algeria, and look flat while doing so.
I think one of the analysts had it right…the English players were too scared of screwing up like their goal keeper in the previous game. They were too tight.