The World Cup knockout round bracket is set, and Five Thirty Eight has updated its odds — based on the ESPN Soccer Power Index — for who is most likely to advance through each round. The most evenly-matched first-round game? Tomorrow’s clash between the United States (49% chance of winning) and Ghana (51%), for reasons explained here.
As for odds of winning the cup, the favorites, per 538, are Brazil (15.60%), the Netherlands (14.53%), Spain (13.14%) and Argentina (13.1%). Notably, the Brazillians and the Dutch achieve those high percentages even though they would have to play each other in the quarterfinals, which would tend to naturally depress either one’s odds of winning it all. (The converse is also true: Uruguay’s almost 10% odds of winning the Cup are due largely to what’s seen as a very easy road to the semis — sorry, Team USA.) From this, I extrapolate that, assuming they beat Slovakia and Chile, respectively, the Brazil-Netherlands quarterfinal winner will be a solid favorite to win the Cup.
In the next tier, odds-wise, are Uruguay (9.76%), Portugal (7.63%) and England (7.18%). Germany (4.27%) and Chile (4.12%) form something of a middle ground between the contenders and the longshots. And then, in the latter group: Paraguay (2.83%), Mexico (2.24%), Ghana (2.20%), South Korea (1.65%), the United States (1.36%), Japan (0.35%) and Slovakia (0.03%) — the latter’s odds being so low in part because they’d likely have to get past both of the co-favorites, the Netherlands and Brazil, just to reach the semifinals. Good luck with that!
Anyway… GO TEAM USA!!! BEAT GHANA!!!
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