Over at SI.com, Stewart Mandel and Andy Staples have joined forces to make 10 bold (and not so bold) predictions on the directions college football will take over the next decade. The whole thing is a great read, but here are some of the highlights:
First, looking back, Mandel and Staples note that, at the beginning of the last decade, USC, LSU, and Ohio State all failed to finish above .500 the previous season, and all would soon hire new coaches (Pete Caroll, Nick Saban, Jim Tressel). By decade’s end, they would be national powers, combining for five national titles.
Meanwhile, Boise State was about to finish its final season in the I-AA Big West conference before moving to — and dominating — the WAC, with 7 titles, and two BCS berths in the decade. Now the Broncos are moving on up to the Mountain West.
Miami, Virginia Tech, and BC were members of the Big East. Cincinnatti and Louisville were in Conference USA.
As for their predictions for the next decade:
#1: BCS Expansion: A seventh AQ conference (the Mountain West) and a 5th BCS Bowl Game (I’m thinking Cotton Bowl)
#2: A non-BCS team will play for the National Championship (although if the Mountain West becomse an AQ this may not happen) — they point out Utah, Boise State, and TCU as likely suspects.
#3: New star coaches (this one is kind of a duh, this will always happen)
#4: Football will become an even bigger TV commodity
#5: UCLA and Tennessee: The USC and Florida of the ’10s? (I’ll believe it when I see it, Rick hasn’t shown the success Pete did in his first few seasons)
#6: Football in 3-D
#7: Notre Dame will lose its independence in the next wave of re-allignment. With the Big Ten and Big 12 joining the Pac-10/12 in moving to 9 conference game schedules, it’s going to be harder for the Irish to schedule quality opponents, on top of which, a major re-alignment (following the inevitable collapse of the Big 12 Lite) would likely affect the Big East and Notre Dame’s non-football sports affiliations.
#8: The Spread and the Pro styles learn to co-exist
#9: Return of the Option offense
#10: Grassroots football (think 7-on-7 tournaments involving lots of top recruits, a la AAU basketball) is growing.
Football will become an even bigger TV commodity
This, of course, depends on the premise that the sport was undervalued in prior years, as opposed to being overvalued now… *cough* Sports Bubble *cough*
The point about Notre Dame scheduling in a 9-conference-game world is fascinating, I hadn’t thought of that…. although it’s not like the Irish have been unable to schedule Pac-10 teams since that conference moved to 9 games…
I don’t buy he sports bubble personally, at least not for tv revenue. Pro sports tickets maybe, but not tv.
As for ND, sure the Pac-10 will schedule them, but they’ll schedule tough opponents when they can find them, less true of other conferences, especially the SEC. Plus, the Big Ten schools may be unceasingly less likely to schedule too many non-conf opponents who are tough with the add conference game. Same with the Big 12.
But I think a super conference shift by the Big Ten and Pac 12 would be the actual forcing function, as Big Ten expansion in particular likely involves taking teams from the Big East which would force NDs hand by taking away their non-football sport league. It either that or stay in a Big East that scrapes together teams from the MAC.
I would pay good money to have No. 9 come true.
Crisp, physical option football is a joy to behold.
Why in the world is anyone up on UCLA? The reasoning in this article says that because USC is having woes, but that’s one opponent on their schedule, and everyone has UCLA picked to finish 8th in the Pac-10. Rick NuAsshole had 1 good season in the last 13 years and he’s a great coach going to rival Pete Carroll and Urban Meyer this next decade? How’s that? As soon as he finishes the regular season above .500 maybe, but not until.
@Sandy
I *THINK* their reasoning is that one of the LA teams will be a top tier team in any given decade and since USC doesn’t look to be that this decade because its being hamstrung by the NCAA’s overreaction that leaves UCLA. I agree with you that the Bruins haven’t really brought anything spectacular to the table so far in the Rick Neuheisal years, and slick Rick’s only recent success was with Jim Lambrights players at UW.
I think Oregon COULD have been more dominant but the off-field stuff and turmoil at the top makes me less likely to believe that now. I think the only reason they are at the top of the polls is that no other Pac-10 team stood out so you went with the default choice (and USC was hit by the sanctions + Pete Carroll left). Honestly I think the Pac-10 race will be wide open this year more so than any recent year. Oregon and OSU are both obviously contenders. Stanford too. UW could have a break out year in Sark’s sophmore season with the amount of veterans we return and Locker at the top of his game, Cal can compete, heck probably everyone but WSU has a legitimate shot.