One week to go in the regular season for the Pac-10. Although the league will most likely end up with either 3 or 4 Pac-10 teams in Bowl games, two of those games look to be BCS games. Not too shabby. Speaking of BCS Bowl games, here’s my predictions for how those will shake out:
NC – Oregon vs. Auburn
Rose – TCU vs. Wisconsin
Sugar – Arkansas vs. Ohio State
Orange – Va Tech vs. Stanford
Fiesta – Nebraska vs. UConn
Now, on to the rankings! UPDATE! I threw in Utah and Colorado.
1. Oregon
11-0 (8-0 Pac 10)
LW: 1
The Ducks started slow for the third week in a row and actually trailed the Wildcats by 5 at the half, but they came out firing on all cylinders in the second half coming away with another solid win. All that stands between Oregon and the National Championship game is in-state rival Oregon State in next week’s Civil War.
2. Stanford
11-1 (8-1)
LW: 2
Stanford rounded out their regular season with a dominant shutout of Oregon State, hopefully securing a top four BCS ranking and a guaranteed spot in a BCS game — as I’ve posted above, likely the Orange Bowl. All they can do now is wait. A win by Stanford in that game, and a win by the Ducks in the NC game, and the Pac-10 could finish the season ranked #1 and #2.
2.5. Utah
10-2 (7-1 Mountain West)
The Utes would probably lose to both Stanford and Oregon, but would probably beat the rest of the Pac-10 this season. Have a great shot to take the inaugural Pac-12 South Title unless USC’s bowl ban is reduced.
3. Arizona
7-4 (4-4)
LW: 3
After a spectacular 7-1 start, the Wildcats faced a gauntlet of Stanford, USC, and Oregon, which has dropped them to 7-4. For a half, it looked like they might be able to take out the Ducks, but hope faded in the third quarter. Arizona can finish on a positive note with a win over rival Arizona State, but the good news for the Wildcats is being the third Pac-10 bowl eligible (and possibly the third out of only three) they will drop no further than the Sun Bowl, and likely end up in the Alamo Bowl.
4. Washington
5-6 (4-4)
LW: 7
The Huskies kept their bowl hopes alive with another strong defensive performance and a clutch final drive by Jake Locker and the offense. Sarkisian bet it all on the final play of the game, opting to run for it on 4th and 1 as time expired for the win, rather than kicking the field goal and going in to overtime. With a reeling Oregon State facing the dominant Ducks next week, Washington is likely the only shot the Pac-10 has for a fourth bowl-eligible team. They’ll take on the WSU Cougars in the Apple Cup next weekend.
5. ASU
5-6 (3-5)
LW: 6
ASU dominated in the second half to put away the Bruins, but their slim hopes for a bowl game (despite two of their wins being over 1-AA teams) were dashed with 70 teams reaching the necessary 6-6 mark, eliminating any chance of the NCAA relaxing the eligibility rules. The Sun Devils have a chance to finish out strong with a victory against Arizona next week, but those 4 games decided by 4 points or less have to really hurt right about now.
6. USC
7-5 (4-4)
LW: 5
As I suspected last week, the Trojans’ streak against the Irish came to an end, as USC fell to ND in a nail-biter of a game. Like Oregon State’s fate swinging with the loss of James Rodgers earlier in the year, it seems that without Matt Barkley at QB, USC just can’t put together the offensive performance it needs. Hopefully Barkley will be ready to play next week, although UCLA’s own struggles may make USC a winner even with Mitch Mustain under center.
7. Cal
5-7 (3-6)
LW: 8
The Bears were one play away from beating the Huskies and earning a bowl berth. Tough loss for the Bears, but what was more depressing was how empty Memorial Stadium was in its final game before undergoing major renovations.
8. Oregon State
5-6 (4-4)
LW: 4
Two weeks ago, OSU lost to perennial Pac-10 doormat Washington State. Last week, they dominated the Trojans in an unexpected upset. This week, the bi-polar Beavers were trounced by Stanford in a shutout. I’m guessing they don’t bounce back next week against the Ducks like they did against the Trojans a week ago.
8.5. Colorado
5-7 (2-6 Big 12)
Colorado isn’t leaving the Big 12 with much impact. The Buffs may be the only Pac-12 team with a new Coach next season, although Paul Wulff, Rick Neuheisal, Jeff Tedford, and even Dennis Erickson are all coaches who might end up on the unemployment line at the end of the season, although I think all four will be back next year. Also, pre-mature congrats to Stanford, Utah and ASU who get to play Colorado, WSU AND UCLA next season.
9. Washington State
2-9 (1-7)
LW: 9
The second of two consecutive bye weeks for the Cougars. Will that extra rest help them overcome the Huskies next weekend, or is the time off going to dull them too much with the Huskies able to take their two-win momentum and chance at a bowl game for the victory? The Cougs would like nothing more than to spoil the Huskies’ postseason hopes, and a win would all but assure Paul Wulff gets one more year in the Palouse.
10. UCLA
4-6 (2-5)
LW: 10
With the win over Texas revealed to be overrated, the Bruins are pretty much a WSU upset over UW and a loss to USC away from being the worst team in the Pac-10 this season. As a Husky and a Trojan, I could not be happier to see Rick Neuheisel doing so, er, well.
Ugh. How in the world do you have ASU ahead of USC, when A. USC beat ASU, B. USC has the better record, and C. two of ASU’s wins came against I-AA foes? You were really that impressed by an ASU home victory over a last-place (according to your rankings) fUCLA team that has already mailed it in for the year (although I’m sure they will be motivated against USC)? Not to mention, the only reason USC lost last night was because of a terrible dropped pass in the final minute.
As for the BCS bowl slots, the lineup you have is pretty consistent with what the pundits are saying, however if those teams hold (substitute FSU for Va Tech, or OU for Nebraska, and I don’t think things change much), I could also see the Orange Bowl as preferring a bowl-starved East Coast team like UConn over Stanford, and the BCS as a whole might figure the Fiesta has a better chance of selling out Stanford tickets in Phoenix than in Miami.
As for rooting interests, I am torn. Part of me would like to see Oregon whip Auburn in the title game, but we still have the TCU problem. South Carolina could very well beat Auburn, but the problem is, nobody is going to give the winner of Oregon-TCU any credit since they didn’t beat the SEC team to win the title. So maybe the best deal is if Oregon State upsets the Ducks, the Ducks hammer the Badgers in the Rose Bowl, and TCU shuts down Auburn in the title game for the national championship.
USC has dropped two in a row to not great teams, beat ASU at home by one, and looked bad yesterday. Not having Barkley hurts them. Remember, other than the top two, the rest of the PAC is tight when it comes to comparing them.
Okay, the loss at Reser was disastrous, but yesterday? It was a rivalry game, we played without Barkley, and we lost only because of a last-minute drop. You can hardly hold that against ‘SC.
If the teams are tightly bunched, then you have to look at overall record, conference record, and head-to-head results. All of those measures favor USC over ASU and some of the other teams ahead of them.
“It was a rivalry game, we played without Barkley, and we lost only because of a last-minute drop. You can hardly hold that against ‘SC.”
Well, ND was also playing a rivalry game, we played without Crist, and we won because of a last-minute interception.
I’m not discounting how close the game was, or the nature of the game, but I’m sorry, objectively USC didn’t look very good, and after two not good performances in a row I’ll drop them a spot or two. As I said these rankings are pretty tight, it doesn’t take much to move teams around.
My prediction is that UW, Arizona, Oregon, USC, all win next week and the Trojans will be back up above ASU to finish out the year.
I’m sorry kcatnd, I didn’t see where David ranked Notre Dame in the Pac-10 standings. Can you point out to me what I am missing?!?
I didn’t rank Notre Dame, but I did add Colorado and Utah for reference.
“I’m sorry kcatnd, I didn’t see where David ranked Notre Dame in the Pac-10 standings. Can you point out to me what I am missing?!?”
Oh, I was disputing your claim that USC lost because of a last-minute drop, and spinning it into a “USC didn’t lose, ND won” kind of thing, as is required by the rules governing rivalry banter.
Otherwise, I pretty much agree with you about USC over ASU in the rankings.
We lost, ND won. If you’re enjoying the victory as much as I’m suffering the loss, good for you — that’s what this rivalry is all about, and Lord knows Domers have suffered enough hardship and tragedy this year, I can’t blame the football gods for finally smiling on them for once. That being said, forget arguing about who is truly the better team, or who was most handicapped by injuries or poor play. I only care about the W, and the bottom line is Notre Dame and Pittsburgh won their games because their opponents (the Trojans and the Bills, respectively) dropped wide-open game-winning TD passes.
Speaking of Buffalo and USC pain, how much did it suck to be Becky as a sports fan this weekend? Poor girl.
I don’t think its fair to say that the dropped pass was the only reason they won the game, there were a lot of other plays leading up to that. Same with the Brotzman kick in the BSU game. Yeah it sucks he missed it, but they sure as heck had other opportunities to win the game, same with USC.
Yes, mathematically there are a bazillion other ways certain plays could’ve turned out whereby USC would’ve won the game, but the point is, with less than a minute to go, USC had a great opportunity to win the game … and dropped it.
Fair enough. Hopefully Barkley is back next weekend, although UCLA should still be beatable even with Mustain, i’d rather have Barkley at QB.