Becky and I may be mired near the bottom of the 7th annual LRT Bowl Pick ’em Contest standings — currently in 34th and 36th place, respectively, out of 39 — but there’s one member of the family who still has a chance to win, and a pretty good chance at that: our 2 1/2 year old daughter, “Loyacita.”
Loyacita, who entered her picks by verbally telling me which team she preferred as I read the matchups off a pick sheet (she usually picked the second team I said, which was generally the Vegas favorite), is presently in third place with 40 points, 4 behind leader Nyghtewynd and 1 behind second-place contender Gahrie — who cannot win because his remaining picks are identical to Nyghtewynd’s.
Unlike Gahrie, Loyacita is still mathematically alive to win the contest. But if she’s going to close the gap, she needs to start tonight.
If Clemson wins tonight, and if Alabama wins the BCS title game, Loyacita will win or share first place unless SMU wins the BBVA Compass Bowl and Northern Illinois wins the GoDaddy.com bowl. So long as either Pitt or Arkansas State is victorious in one of those games, she’ll finish atop the standings. (In the event of a Kansas State win in the Cotton Bowl, she’d be tied in points with Lisa Velte in that scenario, but would win the tiebreaker provided the combined total of points scored in the BCS title game is 40 or fewer. The teams’ first matchup, of course, was famously a 9-6 decision in favor of LSU.)
However, if Clemson loses tonight, Loyacita is mathematically eliminated.
UPDATE: I did some math on elimination scenarios more generally. If West Virginia wins tonight, Nyghtewynd clinches the contest. If Clemson wins, Loyacita, Dan Dinunzio and Lisa Velte are still alive. Everyone else is already mathematically eliminated.
Ultimately, Nyghtewynd wins the contest if either WVU or LSU wins. If, on the other hand, both Clemson and Alabama win, then Nyghtewynd cannot win.
If Clemson, Alabama, SMU and Northern Illinois win, Dinunzio wins the pool.
If Clemson and Bama win, and Pitt OR Arkansas State wins, and EITHER Arkansas wins OR LSU & Bama combine to score 40 points or fewer, Loyacita wins.
If Clemson, Bama and Kansas State win, and Pitt OR Arkansas State wins, and LSU & Bama combine to score 42 points or more, Lisa Velte wins.
If Clemson, Bama and Kansas State win, and Pitt OR Arkansas State wins, and LSU & Bama combine to score exactly 41 points, Loyacita & Lisa Velte finish tied.
Anyway, here is the current Top 10 in the pool with 5 games (worth a total of 11 points) left to go:
1. Nyghtewynd 44
2. Gary Kirby 41
3. Loyacita 40
4. Dan Dinunzio 40
5. Lisa Velte 38
6. Kraig Williams 38
7. Paul Zak 37
8. Thomas Bricker 37
9. Uncle Rick Boeckler 37
10. Jeff Freeze 36
(Where two contestants have the same number of points, but one is listed as ahead of the other, it’s because of the “most wins” tiebreaker. Different bowls are worth different numbers of points, but the raw total of bowls picked correctly is a tiebreaker between contestants with identical point scores.)
Go Loyacita! I see my friend Thomas is beating me too. Ahh, well.
So it is possible that your two year old daughter will be the first Loy to win a Brendanloy.com pool? That would be hilarious.
Woo, I can’t finish in dead last!