Brendan is probably too busy crying in a corner somewhere to post this update, so it’s left up to me to break the news that his favorite GOP Presidential candidate, Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels, has decided against a 2012 Presidential run. Reportedly, his wife and children were not in favor of the idea. No word on whether Daniels was simply too disappointed about not being raptured.
UPDATE BY BRENDAN: I am indeed disappointed. Here is Politico‘s rundown on what happened. It’s really a shame that questions about Cheri Daniels’s fitness as a wife and mother, which — unlike issues in a candidate’s personal life that possibly reflect on his “character” or “judgment” — aren’t even arguably relevant to the candidate’s fitness for office, helped prevent this good man from seeking the presidency. But there it is.
In keeping with Nate Silver’s analysis, I’m now back to thinking that I’ll need to support either Generic Republican (Pawlenty) or the Republican John Kerry (Romney) in the primaries, in order to stop Palin/Bachmann from sniffing presidential power. Ugh. (Of course I’d love to see Huntsman get the nomination, but I can’t see that happening; unlike Daniels, he’s too much of a RINO.)
UPDATE #2 BY BRENDAN: On a related note, Tim Pawlenty is officially in the race (no longer just “exploring”), and he’s announced it with… a generic campaign video! Featuring generic uplifting music! Generic promises of straight talk and “courage”! Generic shots at Obama! Generic folksy dropping of the “g” at the end of the phrase “It’s not workin’!” A generic recounting of his generic blue-collar town background! And a climactic statement so generic — “I know the American dream, because I’ve lived it” — that I’m surprised it didn’t cause this ad to collapse on itself in some sort of quantum singularity of endless, inescapable genericness!
“I’m Tim Pawlenty, I’m the Generic Republican, and I’m running for president! Vote for me, because, meh!”
Actually, it’s a rather good video. But I can’t help making fun.
[Original timestamp 12:11 AM on 5/22. Bumped to top. -ed.]
Mike Murphy said it best on MTP — the first rule of running for POTUS is make sure your wife votes for you.
They need Jeb Bush I tellya.
(On the Sunday Cablenewsies there was some Muttering about possible reconsideration by Chris Christie [ptui! ;] but I can’t See it, he’s been too Shermanesque. / Among Other things. Ptui. )
Jeb. Jeb. Jeb. (No this is not an Endorsement. Just an Analysis. 🙂
If Jeb Bush’s name wasn’t Bush, he would be a very attractive candidate, at least as attractive as Gov. Perry. He was always the one being groomed for president, George snuck in there on him.
I’d like to see him run, if only to witness the hate and vitriol he would be immediately greeted with. There is a little more hope for the next generation of Bushes, although sadly the best hope is also named George.
How about Bush I comes back for his second term, to become Bush I and III ?
(grin) Or possibly better yet, Barbara Bush runs to become Bush III ? (Especially since her pic is already on all the $1 bills !)
First of all, David, I apologize for hijacking your post with like 50 updates. 🙂
Rick Perry seems to me like the most plausible Republican White Knight. Nate Silver has convincingly argued that he would have a huge regional advantage in the primaries as the only viable southerner (sorry, Newt). While I don’t know a lot about Perry, I don’t think his conservative bona fides are remotely subject to question, but nor do I think he is generally seen as Bachmann-esque or Palin-esque in his right-wing nuttiness (a quoted-somewhat-out-of-context Tea Party speech about “secession” notwithstanding). And there have been rumblings that he’s open to being courted.
Paul Ryan may be convinced to run, but I’m not so sure he has the chops to win the nomination or the presidency. Christie is overvalued by national Republicans and talk-radio types, and has joked that he’s thinking of committing suicide so people will stop asking if he’s running for president — it doesn’t get much more Shermanesque than that. Jeb Bush has baggage, and if he wanted to run, he’d be in by now. So, if anyone, I think it’s Perry. Otherwise the GOP is stuck with Generic vs. Mitt vs. the crazies.
My revised odds on who ends up with the nomination…
Pawlenty 33%
Romney 22%
Bachmann 10%
Perry 8%
Palin 6%
Huntsman 5%
Cain 4%
Gingrich 2%
Other 10%
Perry and Palin’s percentages are, of course, much lower than otherwise because they aren’t running at the moment. If Palin runs, she’d jump to something like 10-12% and Bachmann would fall substantially. If Perry runs, he’d probably become the frontrunner, with Pawlenty and Romney collapsing.
(Huntsman is waaaaaay overvalued by pundits and oddsmakers. I like him, but I can’t see him winning. RINO.)
Huntsman is not just a RINO, he is an obscure RINO who worked for President Obama……..
I figured you’d add to it after you stopped crying
I wasn’t crying, I just had to emerge from my Rapture Bunker. 😛
To both Alasdair’s Bar-on-the-Dollarbill & Brendan’s Rapturebunker: LOL!! 🙂
Yeah Alasdair, I, too, sortof Wistfully Wish that GHWB weren’t too Elderly now, as a Practical matter, to seek a 2nd term Again. For one thing, he’s a good man. And for another, i’d haughtily enjoy hearing some folks say “Huh? Hey! That’s Illegal, he already Lost his Re-election bid!” ;>
gahrie, my Gut tells me that with time having passed & so forth, the dreaded BDS virus would no longer be communicable to a Jeb candidacy. And those who don’t already know it would soon learn that Intellectually at least, Jeb — in a Good way — is No George Dubya.
But yeah, Brendan, Perry would be formidable too. (Shudder. 😉
While I agree that BDS is unlikely to have much sway over swing voters at this juncture, I think the issue with Jeb is that the hard-wired BDS on the Left might drum up turnout in an otherwise potentially depressed Democratic base. In other words, a Jeb candidacy might — perversely enough — have a similar effect on turnout as a Palin or Bachmann or Santorum candidacy, even though Jeb is vastly more qualified and less nutty than that trio.
This is why Tim Pawlenty, Generic Republican, is the perfect general election candidate from the GOP’s perspective. The Democrats will, of course, try to scare their base into thinking they must oppose him at all costs — they’ll do that no matter who runs (just as the GOP does when they’re the ones playing defense). But with Pawlenty, it will require effort, and won’t entirely succeed unless he actively does things that make him seem less generic and more scary. By contrast, with either the crazies or with Jeb, or even to some extent with the better-known Mitt, the liberal base will be energized from the get-go to defeat Obama’s opponent. Pawlenty will inspire less enthusiasm on either side than the alternatives, but that’s good for the Republicans because their base is enthused to begin with, desperately wanting to beat Obama, whereas liberals are more depressed, disillusioned, etc. In other words, they’re liberals. 🙂
“… liberals are more depressed, disillusioned, etc. In other words, they’re liberals. :)” Hee hee! Yes Yes. ;>
OK, well argued. I’d add only that the same Rabblerouse-the-depressed-lefty-Base problem would pertain — fiercely, I suspect — to yer man Guv’nuh Perry. He may be a Grownup but Generic he Ain’t. (Who ever heard of a Generic Texan, anyway? 🙂
Even if Dubya hadn’t been such a complete failure as President, I think there would be reluctance to elect a third member of the same family to the Presidency. Starts to feel almost royal at that point.
Jeb should wait until a re-elected Obama further vindicates the “complete failure” of his brother’s presidency.
Talkin’ through my hat here, but I suspect Perry would fall somewhere in between Jeb and Mitt (below the latter, above the former) on the “Rabblerouse-the-depressed-lefty-Base” scale. We political junkies have to remember how superficial a lot of voters are, including plenty with strong ideological opinions but who nevertheless don’t follow politics all that closely. For some of those folks on the Left, the name “Bush” is more toxic and scary than virtually anything Rick Perry could ever do or say.
“We political junkies have to remember how superficial a lot of voters are, including plenty with strong ideological opinions but who nevertheless don’t follow politics all that closely. For some of those folks on the Left, the name “Bush” is more toxic and scary than virtually anything Rick Perry could ever do or say.”
That is an interesting indictment of the US Left …
On the Conservative side, it is the Pelosi/Reid/Obama/Democrat actions and policies which cause the strong dislike, not the name, not the words or gender or melanin content or lack thereof … if a Bush tried to implement ‘Obamacare’, the dislike would be just as strong …
Which is equivalently why we can support President Obama on most of his foreign policy and decisions, since he is continuing the successful Bush policies … on Yisroel, not so much …
So, Mr Obama, when are you going to accede to the reasonable demands of the world for the US to return to its 1845 borders with mutually-agreed swaps?
“On the Conservative side, it is the Pelosi/Reid/Obama/Democrat actions and policies which cause the strong dislike, not the name”
And on the Liberal side it was the Bush actions and policies which caused the strong dislike, not the name, but dumbass morons like you Alasdair refused to accept that and continually threw out accusations of “BDS” to try and distract from any and all criticism of those policies. You are such a transparent hypocrite Alasdair, its not even funny at this point.
ACK ! (again, tho for a different reason)
The 1845 borders reference/paraphrase is from here and is well worth reading …
David, that’s a crock of crap. Dubya was hated to hell by libs from the moment the recounts ended (did they ever end?!?). From the NAACP Byrd ad to the Florida fiasco, the Dems were frothing at the mouth with BDS well before the man stood on the rubble at Ground Zero.
Yes a minority hated him just because he was GOP, just like a minority hate Obama because he’s a dem. On the other hand asshats like Alasdair tried to paint ALL criticism of Dubya based on BDS. I had hoped you were intelligent enough to be aware of the difference. Apparently I was wrong and your just as bad as he is.
AMLTrojan – arguing with him gains you nothing and just annoys our resident davidkian … your points are based in reality … his seem to be based in iNanny-ty …
We did not react to President Bush in an emotional, immature and irrational fashion, he said emotionally, immaturely and irrationally….